Coming Events? September 27, 2011

According to one "relatively-unreliable" source, on Tuesday, September 27, 2011, the United States Military will conduct a "Cocked Pistol" Exercise. This was published in the on-line version of the European Times Newspaper on September 14, 2011. Which states in part that "A disturbing report prepared by General Alexey Maslov, the Senior Military Representative of the Permanent Mission of Russia to NATO, states that he has been notified by the Americans of their plan to hold a DEFCON 1 “Cocked Pistol” maximum readiness alert drill on 27 September which will be overseen by President Obama at one the United States most secure bunkers located beneath the Denver International Airport."

What is a Cocked Pistol Exercise?

Cocked Pistol is the "exercise" code-word for United States Defense Condition One, or DEFCON 1. It's meaning is that Nuclear War is imminent and initiates a state of "Maximum Readiness" throughout the United States Military. From Wikipedia.com, The DEFCON level is controlled primarily by the President and the Secretary of Defense, through the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the Combatant Commanders, and each DEFCON level defines specific security, activation and response scenarios for the troops in question. Different branches of the U.S. armed forces (like the Army, Navy, Air Force) and different bases or command groups can be activated at different defense conditions.

Presently, at the time of this writing the United States Military is at DEFCON 5, meaning a "normal" state of readiness. Even after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks the United States only acheived DEFCON 3, or "Medium Readiness". The highest confirmed DEFCON ever was Level 2. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the US Strategic Air Command was placed on DEFCON 2 for the first time in history, while the rest of US military commands (with the exception of the US Air Forces in Europe) went on DEFCON 3. On 22 October 1962 SAC responded by establishing Defense Condition Three (DEFCON III), and ordered B-52s on airborne alert. Tension grew and the next day SAC declared DEFCON II, a heightened state of alert, ready to strike targets within the Soviet Union. Source document

Now the EUTimes.net article states, Under the SALT I Strategic Nuclear Arms Control Agreement signed between Russia and the US, both parties are required to notify the other in all cases of such maximum readiness drills occurring, but are not required to state their reasons for doing so. Again, restating that from previous history such articles from the EUTimes.net are often unreliable, lets assume (making an ass u me, or making an ass out of you and me) the report is correct?

Wikipedia uses a document from the Savannah District, of the US Army Corps of Engineers as a reference for explaining DEFCONs and procedures. That document can be found here. On page 5 of 13 of the pdf document you can read, 6. Security/Classification. It is imperative that all personnel understand the importance of effective security control measures associated with increasing the readiness of U.S. forces under actual or exercise conditions. All persons listed in the Notification Flow Chart (Appendix A) and others who will have access to messages must possess SECRET or higher security clearances. UNCLASSIFIED messages pertaining to prepositioned instructions concerning the JCS Alert System can no longer be used. At the bottom of page 5 continuing onto page 6 is the association of the security classification regarded as SECRET, which states, Any reference to the fact that an actual or exercise change in readiness is being considered, is
taking place, or has been accomplished.

Paragraph 7, on page 6 continuing onto page 7 indicates the Notification Procedures for said exercises or drills. Note the text, "It is the policy of HQDA to notify Commanders and Reservists concerned in a mobilization prior to the public release of this information. In view of the rapidity of communication of the news media (directly from the seat of Government to the private citizen within minutes of the release), it may be patently impossible to achieve this objective. However, the F-Hour Alert Procedures were developed to allow 18 hours for alerting commanders and reservists before release to the media."

Personal Comment

So here we have an alleged "Cocked Pistol" Exercise, apparently made public knowlege by a Russian General Officer attached to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in a European Internet Newspaper almost two weeks (13 days) ahead of its scheduled time. Dependent upon the actual "H-hour" the eighteen-hour notification to the media could occur as early as 6:00 AM (Eastern) on Monday, September 26th.

From previous experience as a military and then civillian air traffic controller, when the "Alert Klaxon" goes off at a Global Strike Command (formerly known as Strategic Air Command) airbase, the bombers and associated tankers have just a couple minutes to become airborne (especially when doing a "graded" Operational Readiness Inspection). During my tenure with ATC in the Sacramento, California area both in the control towers of McClellan AFB (now closed), Sacramento International and Sacramento Executive Airports, as well as at the Sacramento Terminal Radar Approach Control, now consolidated into the Northern California Terminal Radar Approach Control, I have experienced when the former Mather AFB launched it's "alert" strike force. Five B-52H bombers and five KC-135 tankers all taking off with about 30-seconds between aircraft, turning off Mather AFB right over downtown Sacramento and heading out over the Pacific Ocean off the coast of Mendocino to the "Fail-Safe" points.

At that time (1986) was the last one I experienced from Mather AFB, all departures were "ground-stopped" in the entire Sacramento airspace complex. Also during that time-period, we also had more than just a few bomber bases. At one time there were B-52's based at Fairchild AFB, Malmstrom AFB, Glasgow AFB, Grand Forks AFB, KI Sawyer AFB, Kincheloe AFB, Plattsburg AFB, and Loring AFB. Now our bomber fleet is limited to B-52's at Minot AFB and Barksdale AFB, B-2's at Whiteman AFB, and B-1B's in a non-nuclear strike role at Ellsworth AFB and Dyess AFB. Presently we also have nuclear capable B-52's and B-2's periodically deployed to Andersen AFB, Guam and Diego Garcia, Indian Ocean.

Now considering that United States Nuclear Forces are not just made-up of Air Force Bombers, they also include the Minuteman-III Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles in the fields of North Dakota, Montana. Colorado, Nebraska and Wyoming; and the also include the US Navy's Fleet Ballistic Missile Submarines based at Bangor Naval Station in Washington and King Bay Naval Station, Georgia. Also supporting the Air Force's Bombers will be Air Force KC-10 Extenders and KC-135 Stratotankers which with the dissolving of the Strategic Air Command, became a part of the Air Mobility Command, not to mention aerial refueling assets of the Air Force Reserve and Air National Guard.

So what do we have?

Aside from "active-duty forces" in order to conduct a full-scale "exercise" it will be necessary to "activate" the reserve units, as well as the activation and federalizing of the various Air National Guard and National Guard units under control of the various State Governors.

The B-52-G and -H models were used for nuclear standby ("alert") duty as part of the United States' nuclear triad. This triad was the combination of nuclear-armed land-based missiles, submarine-based missiles and manned bombers. The B-1B Lancer, intended to supplant the B-52, replaced only the older models and the supersonic FB-111.

In 1991, B-52s ceased continuous 24-hour SAC alert duty. After the fall of the Soviet Union, the B-52Gs were destroyed per the terms of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START). The AMARC (at Davis-Monthan AFB) was tasked with eliminating 365 B-52 bombers, completion of this task was to be verified by Russia via satellite and first-person inspection at the AMARC facility. To place the aircraft permanently beyond restoration, the B-52s were cut up into pieces with a 13,000 pound guillotine. The dismembered aircraft were then left in place so their destruction could be confirmed by Russian reconnaissance satellites. As of April 2011, 94 of the original 744 B-52 aircraft were still operational within the U.S. Air Force (85 Air Force and 9 Air Force Reserve). Four of 18 B-52Hs from Barksdale AFB that are currently being retired are in the "boneyard" of 309th AMARG at Davis-Monthan AFB as of 8 September 2008.

The above image depicts the three strategic bomber (nuclear) bases, Minot, Whiteman and Barksdale, as well as the submarine bases at Bangor and Kings Bay, and the Minuteman-III missile fields, along with the 50 largest cities in the country.
I would anticipate that associated with the alleged "Cocked Pistol" exercise to see a change in security posture at other military installations and government facilities in the coming week if there really is to be a full-scale exercise and not a table-top exercise.