Hurricane Wilma - 10/23

Plymouth, MI - As I wrote yesterday, I really do not have a good feeling about the "forecast track" of Hurricane WILMA. The above image while small shows the Infrared satellite view with the forecasted positions of Sunday at 8:00 pm and Monday at 8:00 am. According to latest National Hurricane Center data the hurricane force winds extend out to 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend out to 200 miles. Also according to the NHC the wind field is offset of center on a three-fifths on the right of track and two-fifths on the left of track. This approximately equates to 45 miles left of track for hurricane force winds and 133 miles left of track for tropical storm force winds. The forecast landfall point around 8am Monday is 102.5 nautical miles almost due south of home (Winter Haven, FL). The forecast point for 8pm Monday is approximately 350 miles to the northeast of landfall, which means the closure distance as Hurricane WILMA tracks across Florida will reduce to less than the 102.5 miles.

Looking at the above graphic you'll notice that the current hurricane warning as of the 10PM CDT advisory of 10/22/05 extends around the Florida peninsula. Winter Haven is located about midway between Tampa Bay (where the red line ends on the Gulf of Mexico) and Kennedy Space Center (about the boundary between the yellow line and pink line on the Atlantic Coast).

I'm not "scheduled" to return to Florida until Wednesday afternoon at about 4:30pm. Which according to the NHC Five Day Graphic Wilma should be northeast of Maine. I'm a little concerned for Central Florida ... because as my previous post indicated ... my sensation is that this storm will come ashore between Venice and Ft. Myers and exit into the Atlantic between Melbourne and Kennedy Space Center. A great deal of the media attention seems to be focused on the Florida Keys north to Ft. Myers.

Based upon the 11pm EDT advisory the 8:00am Monday forecast position is 36 hours away. 36 hours isn't a lot of time to prepare or to evacuate. The distance between the 11pm advisory and the 36 hour forecast postion inland is about 400 nautical miles. Which means a forward speed of about 11 miles per hour.

Category 2 Wind Model Graphic Link

Silver Eagle